Will Florida Become The Next New York?

Got Miami Beach average sale prices they’re up 72% got prices up double digits in Boca Wellington Bal Harbour Del Rey all across southern Florida. It isn’t called the Sunshine State for nothing. Over 230 days of sunshine per year, 600 and some miles of beach, Disneyworld, fancy sports cars, a wild nightlife, and of course, no income tax.  stop hearing about Florida in 2020. from Florida now golden ticket in Florida. It sounds like Florida. Some of Wall Street’s biggest names like Goldman Sachs, Elliott, management and Citadel group have or are considering opening offices in Florida High profile investors like Keith Rabois, Shervin Pishevar and Jon Oringer already made the move. Even JetBlue is considering it. . Reports of Florida slowly morphing into a legitimate tech and financial hub has been loosely talked about for over a decade. In 2018, Florida solidified its place in the big leagues when $2.88 billion was raised in venture capital. That trend has continued all throughout 2020.

But Florida’s economy has long been marked by low paying tourism and service sector jobs, inequality and ravaging climate change. It’s ranking near bottom for affordable housing and health and unemployment insurance access. As consumer and employment behavior shifted during the pandemic quality of life became a priority. And Florida seemed like an obvious choice, at least on the outside. Three Floridian cities were among the top six choices for New Yorkers fleeing COVID.

Delian’s tweet and eventual move has fueled momentum that Suarez and other locals have capitalized on. From conversations with celebrities like David Beckham and tech billionaire Peter Thiel to Softbank’s pledged to invest $100 million in the city. The notion that high earning jobs in tech and finance could migrate down Florida, has locals buzzing. The state has many draws. Aside from the sunshine its welcoming business climate is high on the list. According to the Tax Foundation, after Wyoming, South Dakota and Alaska, Florida is the fourth friendliest business state in the country. No individual income tax and low corporate and unemployment insurance taxes. Looking at more than 60 measures of competitiveness, CNBC ranks the state 12th fourth for access to capital after California, New York and Texas. The influx of the wealthy has reflected in real estate sales too. South Florida home sales valued $1 million and above jumped between 40 and 50% in 2020, compared to 2019.

Florida makes about half of what they’d make in New York. That could be a deterring factor for individuals choosing between job offers in New York or Florida. Migration trends are a strong indicator of growth. Between 2010 and 2019, Florida received over 2.3 million more people than it lost, the highest in the nation. The population grew by nearly 15% in the last decade. But more than half of that growth came from people aged 60 and above. In 2020. Contrary to many reports, population growth was expected to slow down. According to an independent analyst on cellphone data, migration to Tampa and Orlando surged, but dropped sharply in Miami. The overall impact ended up being roughly neutral. Florida’s economy has come a long way over the past 50 years. In 1963, it was the 11th largest economy in the country. Today, it’s the fourth just behind New York.

Florida’s gross state product, which is commonly used to measure the health of an economy, also stayed well above the national average in the seven years prior to COVID. Except for the dips in the ’08 recession, employment grew in every category until 2020. Just like anywhere else in the world, COVID was tough on Florida, real GDP fell 2.9%. And despite its lax COVID closures and the stories of mass influx of people, between Q3 and Q4, the state only grew 3.1%, in comparison to other states with no income tax like Texas and Tennessee. While an immense amount of wealth enters Florida annually, median income in the state is about 13% below the national average. Most employed Floridians work in construction, restaurants and food services, and elementary and secondary schools. Inequality is increasing over time. And the state spends less on public services like health and education per capita than any other state in a nation. That has resulted in social and economic problems like suppressed low and middle income wages, social fragmentation, poor health and violence. Spending more than a year working from home has reassured companies that they can cut back on pricey New York City or San Francisco offices, while maintaining revenue. And Florida has benefited from that shift. But for it to become an epicenter, could take time. It took New York City centuries to build its agglomeration and economies of scale. It remains to be seen if and how South Florida can accomplish that.

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